Capacity standards · supervision system
Hosting Capacity Model
Placement ranges per facility type, the theoretical aggregate treated with the skepticism it deserves, and the supervision system that is the true binding constraint.
Capacity standards by facility type
The capacity model derives placement ranges per facility type from verified institution counts and explicit per-facility assumptions (ASM-11 to ASM-16). The low/medium/high columns are planning ranges for pilot design — each would be validated by facility census and pilot evidence before expansion:
| Capacity item | Basis | Low | Medium | High | Unit | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upazila-level office placements (495 upazila complexes) | Derived (ASM-11): 15/20/30 students per upazila per year | 7425 | 9900 | 14850 | students/year | All upazila complexes hosting simultaneously is a strong assumption; phased rollout more realistic |
| Union Parishad placements (4,554 unions) | Derived (ASM-12): 1/2/4 students per union per year | 4554 | 9108 | 18216 | students/year | Pairs with union digital centers where functional |
| Primary school placements (65,567 schools) | Derived (ASM-13): 1/2/3 students per school per year | 65567 | 131134 | 196701 | students/year | Education-sector only; head-teacher supervision capacity is the binding constraint, not building count |
| Secondary institutions (19,211-21,086) | Derived (ASM-13): 1/2/3 per institution | 21086 | 42172 | 63258 | students/year | NA |
| NU college campus-based placements (2,260-2,500 colleges) | Derived (ASM-14): 20/50/100 per college per year | 50000 | 120000 | 250000 | students/year | College-based model where students serve near their own college - the only mechanism that can plausibly absorb 100,000+ participants |
| Health facilities (418 UHCs + district hospitals) | Derived (ASM-15): 8/12/20 per facility | 3800 | 5800 | 9600 | students/year | 418 UHCs + 64 district hospitals = 482 facilities |
| District administration placements (64 DC offices) | Derived (ASM-16): 20/40/60 per office | 1280 | 2560 | 3840 | students/year | NA |
| AGGREGATE theoretical placement capacity (annual) | Sum of above rows | 155916 | 322174 | 706465 | students/year | Theoretical, NOT operational: assumes every institution type participates; real constraint is trained supervisors and coordination, verified by none of these numbers |
| Trained supervisors required - scenario S1 (100,000) at 1:20 | Derived (ASM-07) | 5000 | 5000 | 5000 | supervisors | Mid estimate; ratio fixed at planning default |
| Trained supervisors required - S2 (200,000) at 1:20 | Derived (ASM-07) | 10000 | 10000 | 10000 | supervisors | NA |
| Trained supervisors required - S3 (300,000) at 1:20 | Derived (ASM-07) | 15000 | 15000 | 15000 | supervisors | Roughly equals 1 percent of the 1,464,350 filled government posts (SRC-09) - large but not absurd |
| Supervisor training cohort capacity | Derived (ASM-17): 25 trainees per trainer-day; 200 trainer-days/year per trainer | 5000 | 10000 | 15000 | supervisors trainable per year by 1/2/3 dedicated training units | A 30-person central training unit can certify ~15,000 supervisors/year (2-day course each) |
| University coordination staff (1 per 200 enrolled participants) | Derived (ASM-18) | 500 | 1000 | 1500 | staff | Across all participating universities; 173 universities exist (SRC-01) |
| Government program office staff (1 per 2,000 participants) | Derived (ASM-18) | 50 | 100 | 150 | staff | National + divisional + district coordination |
| Digital platform: concurrent placement records | Derived (ASM-19): 2 placement windows/year | 50000 | 100000 | 150000 | records live concurrently | Platform must handle registration, attendance, supervisor sign-off, grievance intake |
| Distinguishing vacancies from hosting capacity | Methodological note | NA | NA | NA | note | The 521,922 vacant government posts (SRC-09) represent UNFILLED JOBS, not hosting capacity. Hosting capacity depends on supervisor availability, workspace and task design - NOT on vacancy counts. This row exists to prevent a common analytical error. |
Theoretical aggregate capacity
The aggregate assumes every institution type participates simultaneously at the stated densities — and the register says so plainly. Real capacity is set by trained supervisors, coordinator availability, workspace and task design, none of which are verified by institution counts. The theoretical medium (322,174) exceeds 300,000, which is exactly why the research refuses to treat it as an answer: it is the ceiling of a model, not a plan.
The supervision system
Supervision is the binding constraint, and it is a solvable one — with time. The register sizes the supervisor pipeline: a 30-person central training unit can certify ~15,000 supervisors per year (2-day course, 25 trainees per trainer-day, ASM-17); university coordination needs 1 staff member per 200 participants (ASM-18); and the national programme office runs at 1 per 2,000 participants (50–150 staff across 100,000–300,000 participants).
Vacancies are not capacity
The 521,922 vacant government posts (SRC-09) represent unfilled jobs, not hosting capacity. Hosting capacity depends on supervisor availability, workspace and task design — not on vacancy counts. This row exists to prevent a common analytical error: the temptation to read the vacancy crisis as free placement space. Students add capacity at the margin under supervision; they do not fill posts.