NUPSSP Blueprint › Program Design › Participation Scenarios
Scenario model · 57 rows
Participation Scenarios — 100k / 200k / 300k
Three planning scenarios with their full infrastructure requirements — placements, host institutions, supervisors and sector splits — under explicit assumptions.
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Three scenarios, one hypothesis
The 100,000 / 200,000 / 300,000 participation levels began as user-specified planning targets. The research treats them as hypotheses to be tested, never as verified capacities: every row in the scenario model is labelled a planning assumption and every derived quantity states its arithmetic. What the scenarios expose is which constraints bind first — and at what scale the programme would break.
100,000
S1 Conservative — 8.5% of the national final-year cohort; within reach of direct universities plus partial NU participation
PL-18 · PH-3 scale
200,000
S2 Intermediate — requires the NU college model to be operating under controlled expansion
PH-2/PH-3 territory
300,000
S3 Target hypothesis — 25.6% of the national final-year cohort; exceeds the direct pool by 169,822 (PL-15)
Held as a conditional PH-4 question
The infrastructure each scenario demands
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| Scenario | Metric | Value | Unit | Evidence | Basis | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 - Conservative | Annual participants | 100000 | students | Model | User-specified target hypothesis; not a verified capacity figure | NA |
| S1 - Conservative | Concurrent placements (two intakes/year) | 50000 | students | Derived | 100000 / 2 | Assumes semester system with two placement windows per calendar year |
| S1 - Conservative | Host institutions needed at 10 students per institution | 10000 | institutions | Derived | 100000 / 10 | Plausible average hosting density for upazila-level offices |
| S1 - Conservative | Host institutions needed at 20 students per institution | 5000 | institutions | Derived | 100000 / 20 | Higher-density model requiring dedicated coordination rooms |
| S1 - Conservative | Trained supervisors at 1:10 ratio | 10000 | supervisors | Derived | 100000 / 10 | High-touch ratio suitable for health, procurement-adjacent and data-sensitive assignments |
| S1 - Conservative | Trained supervisors at 1:20 ratio (recommended planning default) | 5000 | supervisors | Derived | 100000 / 20 | Balanced ratio for general administrative support placements |
| S1 - Conservative | Trained supervisors at 1:30 ratio | 3333 | supervisors | Derived | 100000 / 30 | Stretch ratio only for low-risk, batch-style digitization or survey support tasks |
| S1 - Conservative | Students per upazila if spread across all 495 upazilas | 202.0 | students/upazila/year | Derived | 100000 / 495 | 495 upazilas verified (SRC-81); actual allocation would follow enrollment distribution (GAP-18) |
| S1 - Conservative | Students per district if spread across all 64 districts | 1562.5 | students/district/year | Derived | 100000 / 64 | NA |
| S2 - Intermediate | Annual participants | 200000 | students | Model | User-specified target hypothesis; not a verified capacity figure | NA |
| S2 - Intermediate | Concurrent placements (two intakes/year) | 100000 | students | Derived | 200000 / 2 | Assumes semester system with two placement windows per calendar year |
| S2 - Intermediate | Host institutions needed at 10 students per institution | 20000 | institutions | Derived | 200000 / 10 | Plausible average hosting density for upazila-level offices |
| S2 - Intermediate | Host institutions needed at 20 students per institution | 10000 | institutions | Derived | 200000 / 20 | Higher-density model requiring dedicated coordination rooms |
| S2 - Intermediate | Trained supervisors at 1:10 ratio | 20000 | supervisors | Derived | 200000 / 10 | High-touch ratio suitable for health, procurement-adjacent and data-sensitive assignments |
| S2 - Intermediate | Trained supervisors at 1:20 ratio (recommended planning default) | 10000 | supervisors | Derived | 200000 / 20 | Balanced ratio for general administrative support placements |
| S2 - Intermediate | Trained supervisors at 1:30 ratio | 6667 | supervisors | Derived | 200000 / 30 | Stretch ratio only for low-risk, batch-style digitization or survey support tasks |
| S2 - Intermediate | Students per upazila if spread across all 495 upazilas | 404.0 | students/upazila/year | Derived | 200000 / 495 | 495 upazilas verified (SRC-81); actual allocation would follow enrollment distribution (GAP-18) |
| S2 - Intermediate | Students per district if spread across all 64 districts | 3125.0 | students/district/year | Derived | 200000 / 64 | NA |
| S3 - Target hypothesis | Annual participants | 300000 | students | Model | User-specified target hypothesis; not a verified capacity figure | NA |
| S3 - Target hypothesis | Concurrent placements (two intakes/year) | 150000 | students | Derived | 300000 / 2 | Assumes semester system with two placement windows per calendar year |
| S3 - Target hypothesis | Host institutions needed at 10 students per institution | 30000 | institutions | Derived | 300000 / 10 | Plausible average hosting density for upazila-level offices |
| S3 - Target hypothesis | Host institutions needed at 20 students per institution | 15000 | institutions | Derived | 300000 / 20 | Higher-density model requiring dedicated coordination rooms |
| S3 - Target hypothesis | Trained supervisors at 1:10 ratio | 30000 | supervisors | Derived | 300000 / 10 | High-touch ratio suitable for health, procurement-adjacent and data-sensitive assignments |
| S3 - Target hypothesis | Trained supervisors at 1:20 ratio (recommended planning default) | 15000 | supervisors | Derived | 300000 / 20 | Balanced ratio for general administrative support placements |
| S3 - Target hypothesis | Trained supervisors at 1:30 ratio | 10000 | supervisors | Derived | 300000 / 30 | Stretch ratio only for low-risk, batch-style digitization or survey support tasks |
| S3 - Target hypothesis | Students per upazila if spread across all 495 upazilas | 606.1 | students/upazila/year | Derived | 300000 / 495 | 495 upazilas verified (SRC-81); actual allocation would follow enrollment distribution (GAP-18) |
| S3 - Target hypothesis | Students per district if spread across all 64 districts | 4687.5 | students/district/year | Derived | 300000 / 64 | NA |
The supervisor rows carry the design's most important discipline: 1:20 is the planning default (ASM-07); 1:10 is required for data-sensitive and health-adjacent assignments; 1:30 is a stretch ratio only for batch-style digitization.Source data: research CSV dataset (see Downloads)
Figure 1. Trained supervisors required by scenario and supervision ratio (ASM-07). At 300,000 participants the default ratio needs 15,000 supervisors — about 1% of all filled government posts (SRC-09).
Sector placement splits
The planning split (ASM-09) allocates participants across ten sectors in proportion to verified host-network size and task availability. It is a starting hypothesis for the capacity model — PH-0 facility censuses and pilot evidence would replace it:
| Sector (S3 · 300k scenario) | Students/year | Basis | Verified host anchors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sector placement - Education (schools, colleges, education offices) | 90000 | 30% of 300000 | Largest verified host network: 65,567 primary schools (SRC-87), 19,211-21,086 secondary institutions (SRC-88; SRC-89), 2,260-2,500 NU colleges (SRC-91; SRC-90) |
| Sector placement - Health | 45000 | 15% of 300000 | 418 upazila health complexes (SRC-85), district hospitals; BMDC internship precedent (SRC-94) |
| Sector placement - Local government and rural development | 45000 | 15% of 300000 | 4,554-4,585 union parishads (SRC-81; SRC-82), 330 pourashavas (SRC-83), 12 city corporations (SRC-84), 495 upazila parishads (SRC-81) |
| Sector placement - Public administration and records management | 30000 | 10% of 300000 | 64 district administrations, upazila offices, land offices |
| Sector placement - Digital government and ICT | 24000 | 8% of 300000 | ICT Division, a2i, union digital centers (count requires verification - GAP-20) |
| Sector placement - Research, statistics and data quality | 18000 | 6% of 300000 | BBS district offices, BANBEIS |
| Sector placement - Agriculture and fisheries | 15000 | 5% of 300000 | Upazila agriculture extension offices under Ministry of Agriculture |
| Sector placement - Social protection and social welfare | 15000 | 5% of 300000 | 64 district + upazila social welfare offices |
| Sector placement - Environment and climate | 9000 | 3% of 300000 | Department of Environment offices |
| Sector placement - Public procurement monitoring (observer role only) | 9000 | 3% of 300000 | CPTU and procuring entities - documentation organization only, no evaluation role |
For S1/S2 the same percentages apply — see CSV 13 for all 30 sector rows.Source data: research CSV dataset (see Downloads)
Figure 2. Education's 30% share reflects the largest verified host network; procurement's 3% is observer-role only. Full basis notes in CSV 13.
How these numbers should be used
Scenario discipline
Scenario rows answer "what would X require?" — never "X is possible." The verified facts sit in the capacity model (institution counts) and the pipeline (eligible pool); the scenario model connects them under stated assumptions. Where the three meet — supervisors, coordinator corps, platform load — is where feasibility is decided, and those are exactly the metrics the pilot must measure (see M&E framework).